Regardless of unprecedented rising rates of interest and elevated price of capital, the demand for monetary advisors, particularly retirement plan advisors, continues because the promise of the convergence of wealth, retirement and advantages on the office retains PE companies . The Q2 2023 Sensible Rhino Group report observes that for people who have achieved scale, the aim is integration, whereas different Aggregators nonetheless attempt for scale.

However as Ascensus CEO David Musto quipped just lately at an business convention, “Scale is bullsh*t. Dimension alone is meaningless within the absence of the advantages.”

RPA M&A offers began heating up in 2017, with eight offers rising to 74 final yr in comparison with 96 RIA offers in ’17 and 273 in ’22. With an estimated 13,000 RPA specialists (outlined by Cerulli as these with 50% or extra of their income from outlined contribution plans) and a complete of 288,000 lively monetary advisors, the RPA deal market is six instances extra lively, comparatively. RPA valuations stay excessive at virtually 11x EBITDA, however with much less money up entrance. There are a mean of eight patrons for every deal, however in line with Dick Darian, WRG’s founder and CEO, the patrons could range by transaction.

The hope and promise of serving and monetizing members is driving curiosity in RPAs, as plan sponsors are more and more open to permitting and even asking suppliers and advisors to supply staff wealth and profit steerage and recommendation. And whereas there may be rising competitors between file keepers, RPAs and RIAs, the CEO of a prime three DC recordkeeper that gives wealth providers, famous {that a} 1% conversion fee could be a homerun leaving loads of alternatives for advisors. A number one consulting agency stated {that a} rising variety of PE companies, together with some sovereign funds, have an interest within the RPA market based mostly on a 1% conversion alternative.

The handful of scaled RPA companies are centered on integration and wealth, whereas the others proceed to climb that mountain. Darian acknowledged, “RPA Aggregators may have to herald skilled managers to construct and execute.” CAPTRUST CEO Fielding Miller added, “Crucial benefit of scaling is the power to draw the perfect expertise.”

WRG estimates that there at present are virtually 100 RPA patrons together with:

• Present RPA aggregators;
• Rising RPA aggregators;
• RIA aggregators;
• Dealer sellers;
• Personal fairness; and
• Strategic patrons.

RIA Aggregators are simply beginning to pay extra consideration to DC plans and RPA companies, led by Inventive Planning’s acquisition of Lockton’s retirement advisory division late 2021 and most just lately Carson Group’s buy of Northwest Administration.

As extra RPAs at scale begin to successfully leverage members, it turns into more durable for independents to compete, famous Darian. Although lots of the bigger RPA companies have already got been acquired, Darian noticed that there are nonetheless 50 teams with a minimum of $5 million in income and one other 1,000 engaging targets who selected to sit down out the primary wave.

RPAs and RIAs are squarely within the second of 4 phases of consolidation outlined in a 2002 Harvard Enterprise Overview article “The Consolidation Curve,” by A.T. Kearny consultants, that studied 1,345 mergers in numerous industries.

Throughout Stage 2 (Scale), main gamers emerge quickly shopping for up rivals, with the highest three gamers having fun with 15-45% market share honing integration abilities, core tradition, retention and a scalable IT platform. In Stage 3 (Focus) survivors look to broaden their core companies to aggressively outgrow their competitors, with the market share of the highest three (out of 5-12 total gamers) rising to 35-70%. This stage consists of megadeals and large-scale performs as survivors ruthlessly assault underperformers, particularly start-ups. Revenue is vital, as is avoiding all-out assaults on different main gamers.

Report keepers are within the midst of stage 3, with 5 dominant 401(ok) file keepers and 10-12 important rivals. When RPA aggregators begin shopping for up different aggregators, it’s a signal that they’ve entered the subsequent stage.

Convergence historically refers to providing wealth, retirement and profit recommendation and providers on the office or the convergence of the concepts and practices from the institutional market to the retail sector whereas determining tips on how to promote and repair the exploding micro and start-up market.

But it surely additionally may imply the convergence of file keepers, advisors and asset managers companies. These closest to the consumer have essentially the most energy, however asset managers, who’re furthest away, have the best margins. Report keepers have and can proceed to look to supply advisory providers to members in addition to proprietary and co-created investments. Advisors are leveraging funding merchandise to spice up income whereas partnering with fintechs like Vestwell and leveraging PEPs to supply outsourced file conserving providers to shoppers.

As RPA companies develop, they not solely grow to be extra engaging to PE companies and RIA aggregators, they could additionally grow to be targets of file keepers. Stage 2 of the consolidation curve is simply preparation for the true battle in Stage 3 earlier than culminating in the fourth and ultimate stage (Steadiness & Alliance) when the highest three entities, with 70-90% market share, focus on forming alliances as progress turns into tougher.

The stakes are getting larger for RPAs. The competitors is harder with new rivals rising. Just a few could have the expertise, capital and capabilities to prevail.