This tweet final week caught my consideration.
1. Shares are falling like a recession is coming
2. Oil costs are rising like there is no recession in sight
3. Rates of interest are rising like we have now 10% inflation
4. Gold is falling like inflation is gone
5. Housing costs are rising like charges are…
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) September 27, 2023
It’s been a bizarre couple of months out there and the financial system. In the present day was no exception.
Earlier within the week we discovered that non-public payroll development fell sharply in September to 89,000 for the month, badly beneath the 160,000 that economists have been anticipating. Yields backed off as merchants and traders repositioned for a slowing financial system.
In the present day we discovered that nonfarm payrolls exploded to 336,000 for September, greater than twice the 170,000 consensus estimate. Yields rocketed greater and shares slumped pre-market as merchants and traders did an about-face to reprice an accelerating financial system that might hold the Federal Reserve’s foot not on however close to the brakes.
This has been a difficult market to determine. As at all times, be open to a variety of outcomes and be sure you’re not wedded to any of them.